December 3, 2024

No.188

November 2024
(Back Issues Here)

We had 41.16 inches of rain at the Palmira Arriba Station during the month of November 2024.

Rainfall for November 2024
Area	Contributors	November 2024	Total 2024
El Salto Arriba	Beth Corwin	18.25	117.88
Bajo Lino	Rodrigo Marciacq	35.95	n/a
Los Cabazon	Don Hughes	33.34	145.45
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	46.68	218.09
Jaramillo Arriba	Mark Heyer	42.10	167.38
Jaramillo Abajo	John McGann	45.26	219.55
Palo Alto	Nancy Pettersen	32.80	150.49
Valle Escondido	Gisela Remsen	36.21	149.83
Brisas  Boquetenas	Dennis Decorte	66.17	n/a
Brisas Boquetenas	Richard Sturz	61.71	n/a
El Encanto (Volcancito)	Brian Baldwin	34.36	145.49
Cerro Verde (Volcancito)	Charlotte Lintz	31.94	119.57
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	36.71	172.75
Caldera	Chris McCall	48.83	224.00
Lucero	Mike Joy	67.87	295.68
Palmira Abajo	Andrea Boraine	n/a	n/a
Palmira Abajo	Dave Nichols	39.16	204.24
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	41.16	181.90
El Banco (Potrerillos Arriba)	Laura Daniels	39.33	n/a
N/A = Not Available Red = Highest rainfalls Green = Lowest rainfall

The highest reported rainfalls are noted with the red boxes. The lowest reported rainfalls are noted with the green boxes. The highest was 67.87 inches at Lucero reported by Mike Joy. Dennis Decorte reported 66.17 inches at Brisas Boquetenas. The lowest reported was 18.25 inches by Beth Corwin at El Salto Arriba. Look the table over to see the variation in the District of Boquete. Note that in general lots of rain was reported throughout the District of Boquete.

Checking the past data from the Palmira Arriba Station over a span of 18 years, the average rainfall for the months of November is 13.70 inches.  The range is 39.66 inches with a low of 1.50 to a high of 41.16 inches of rain. This month's 41.16 inches is 27.4 inches above the annual mean of 13.7 inches. This is 2.57 standard deviations above the mean but is clearly outside the normal statistical range. We had lots of rain in November. Way beyond normal.

We had rain every day but one in November at the Palmira Arriba Station.  Most of the heavy rain occurred in the first 2 weeks of the month.  You can check our daily rain in November at this link.  Go to the table (slide the bottom slider to the right) and look at the last column to see each days total. We had a couple days of very high rainfall, with 6+ and 5+ inches!

Here is a summary of the statistics for the months of November collected over a span of 18 years.  

Palmira Arriba Station November Rainfalls over 18 Years

You can Check it out for yourself here.

Last month the average winds at the Palmira Station were 0.26 mph with maximum winds of 13.1 mph. During the rainy season we usually have lower winds than during the dry season. This November we had the lowest average winds for the year. 

You can check out all of our (Palmira Station) previous monthly data for Novembers at this link.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are mostly near average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025." Here is a link to a source to better understand El Niño in case you need some help interpreting what this all means. Give this a read and you will learn a lot about this important weather phenomenon that affects global weather. It has more effect upon the Northern Latitudes than it has upon us here in the tropics.   

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is predicting a high probability (70+%) of above normal rainfall for Panama during the months of December 2024 and January and February 2025 (blue).

IMHPA (Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá) documents section predicts that the December rainfall for Chiriqui will be above normal levels. You can read their report and check out the details in the "documents" section at this link. They are predicting basically normal levels of rain in Panama with the exception of some of the eastern areas for December.

We had lots of rain, sometimes heavy, in November. With the heavy rains, the soil becomes saturated and then with further rain there is flooding. This flooding leads to roads and bridges being damaged. In  low spots water can collect and form bodies of water. We had all of this last month in various areas of the District. Parts of roads washed out and there was damage to some bridges.

Here in the Palmira area we had significant road damage on the main road between Plaza San Francisco and Palmira Central. A couple areas of the road after the coffee beneficio where the grade is steep were seriously damaged and traffic was closed. Eventually a one-way passage was opened. Crews and heavy equipment have been working on the problem and seem to be making progress in restoring the bank and the roadway. It is a major project. Fortunately there is another route to our place via the Volcancito road so we were never completely boxed in. Other areas were affected but, in general, Bajo Boquete remained open. We are getting back to normal.

Last month I reported some thoughts about the cause of the heavy rain. This is not the first time for heavy rains and flooding to occur. You can read my thoughts about this here.

During the heavy rains and flooding many were wondering what the cause of all the rain was and why it had not been forecasted and warnings given?

Most of the time we don't pay much attention to the details and causes of our weather.  We just get up and live with whatever the weather brings until a serious event occurs. Then we start to panic and want more information. Unfortunately many know very little about the weather and it's multiple complicated causes. They just live with it. We don't want to work very much to get the information. We sort of want to be spoon-fed and get quick cursory information!  Where can we find it?

Owning a cheap or expensive weather station doesn't help much.  They only tell us a few pieces of information about were we live, like temperature, wind speed and direction, rain rate and amount, etc.. They don't tell us anything about the causes of the weather or what to expect.  They don't forecast anything. They only tell us a bit about the weather where the station is located.  Buying an inexpensive station and putting it in your backyard will only tell you what is going on in your backyard at the moment the measures are made. This is of course dependent upon the complicated gadget working correctly!

I personally have a deep curiosity about how things work. What causes things? Ignorance is not my game.  For this reason I came to Panama with a weather station (not a cheap one) and went to work studying and learning about the weather and climate.  Eventually I decided to share it with whomever might be interested. 

At the time I set up the Palmira Arriba weather Station only one other person had put up a station. He eventually stopped using his station after it developed problems and took it down.

20 years ago, weather reporting to the public was limited to nonexistent here.  Panama did not have much to offer to help understand the weather and climate. Forecasting the weather for the public was nil. Access to the internet was limited to nonexistent. 

Initially I played with the idea of having a network of local stations so we could know and follow the current weather data for different parts of the District and learn more about possible "microclimates." I eventually gave up this idea because there wasn't much interest in buying weather stations, setting them up and maintaining them. Getting all this done would take more of my time and resources than I wanted to expend in my retirement. I also had other interests and hobbies to pursue. 

I never intended to be "the weatherman" of Boquete. I never intended to forecast the weather. I just wanted to follow and better understand it. For 18+ years I have kept the Palmira Arriba weather station up and running 24/7 collecting and storing the data. I have never collected a penny from anyone for this project. It is strictly a thing I like to do and share with others. Eventually a number of people in the area started collecting rain data and sharing it with me so I could report it each month. I set up the website for people to have some tools to understand and follow the weather.  

Over the 20 years we have been observing the weather of Boquete a lot has happened in the world of meteorology (Now better known as Atmospheric Science). We also now have more reliable internet to access this information. Via the internet we can access a plethora of weather models that provide ongoing reliable information. Weather forecasting has greatly improved and keeps on getting better. The advancement is mind boggling.

If you want to know more about how this massive weather information system works, I highly recommend a book by Andrew Blum entitled "The Weather Machine: A Journey Inside the Forecast."  It will give you an overview of how this system is put together and operates. You will gain an appreciation of this incredible system.  

Given all of this, with the combination of my simple backyard weather station collecting a few pieces of local weather data, the weather satellite system collecting massive amounts and types of observational data, the supercomputers analyzing and calculating gigantic amounts of data for calculations by various mathematical physics formulas and the advanced forecasting regarding weather around the globe, we can now use all of this to help observe and cope with the weather.

How I Currently Observe the Weather

When I get up in the morning, I look out the windows to observe the current weather.  Here is what I saw this morning:

Looking southeast I saw the sun poking through some scattered clouds at various levels.

  

Looking north to Volcan Baru I saw some blue sky and clouds over the Volcano. 

I smiled and thought the day would probably be mixed with sunshine poking through at times and then probably clouds building up like it normally does in the rainy season during the month of December.

I checked the Boqueteweather.com Quick page and could see that the numbers fit what I was seeing. The winds were light coming out of the NNE at 6 mph. 

I then looked at the a large Satellite image encompassing the entire area of Central America and the Caribbean at the Tropical Tidbits Website. I watched the loop animation to see how things were moving.

 

I could see some cloud systems in the lower Caribbean moving a little toward our area but not over us. I then went to a closer satellite view of our area at the GOES Image Viewer of Central America. I selected the GEO Color Gif Image and watched the animation loop. Here is what I saw.

Clouds systems were moving toward Central America but to the north and not directly over us. They were moving farther northwest toward Nicaragua.

I then went to my favorite forecast model site Meteoblue. I have mine set on my location Palmira Arriba. Here is what I saw.

I looked at the various hours through the day and basically saw that there was some sunshine at various times and from about 11:00 on through 15:00 there was a 70% chance of light rain (0.21 to 0.67 inches). A 50% chance of rain (0.78) inches after 21:00.

This indicated to me that we were going to have some sun at times today and eventually some very light rain midday or in the afternoon.  The larger picture raised some question of more significant rain moving into our area over the next few days. I will keep monitoring the larger picture the next few days.

I checked the next Meteoblue graph. It is my favorite graph from Meteoblue. It is simple but packed with information.

I think it is self-explanatory.  Check it out.  Note the Precipitation graph on Tuesday.  About 12:00 you can see light green bars (showers) showing up and indicating about 0.20 inches. You can get some idea of when the showers will show up and how much precipitation will be associated with each bar. 

There you have my usual routine of looking at the weather for the day.  It only takes 10-15 minutes max once you learn how to do it. I spend about 15 minutes a day with all of my weather stuff.

If significant systems develop in the Caribbean I will study more.  I often watch Mr. Weatherman Brian Shields. He is well experienced and qualified in understanding and presenting Caribbean weather and the storms that can affect us here in Panama 

 In summary, here is the overall strategy of how I personally assess the weather each day:

1. Look out the windows and see what the current weather looks like.
2. If you have one, check your station and look at the current weather data. 
3. Look at Satellite images of the Caribbean and Central America to get the Big Picture.
4. Check out Satellite loop animations to see how things are developing/traveling.
5. Take a look at Meteoblue forecasts for the day (bottom of the Quick page of my website).
6. Look at other Meteoblue graphics by clicking the "More" button at the bottom Meteoblue chart.
7. Scroll down the Meteoblue charts to the hourly weather forecast graphic and look at the details.

Which model is the best and most accurate?  There are at least 50 models of various types. Some are global and regional ones. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was developed by the British. The Global Forecast System (GFS) was developed in the United States. The Icosahedrah Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) was developed by the Germans. They are all continually managed and improved by these groups. They are all good global forecasting systems with the ECMWF probably the best. You can select which model you want to use with the Meteoblue program. This graphic gives you some idea of the comparisons possible. I typically only use the ECMWF or the GFS models.

How good are the forecast models?  No forecasts are perfect. The goal is to be perfect but it is never achieved. The models are all in a continual state of research and development as well as delivering ongoing forecasts. In general, 5 day forecasts are the best and accurate about 90% of the time, 7 day forecasts about 80% and 10 day forecasts about 50% of the time. While this is a decided improvement from past years, they are still just probability statements with 90 to 50 percent accuracy.

Which program or App is the best?  There are several programs that we can use to get useful forecast  information from the various models.  I have tried 3 apps and have all three on my computer and iPhone.  Windy, Ventusky and Meteoblue. None of them have very good tutorials. You basically have to learn how to use them by trial-and-error. Try them yourself and see what you think. They have free versions or for very little cost you can get the premium versions. I like the simplicity of Ventusky. Windy is somewhat complicated to learn but it can do a lot of things. The tutorials for Windy are not very useful. I like the user interface and graphics of Meteoblue the best so I use it the most. I subscribe to their premium service which allows me to have a "point+" feature to follow my location. It is not very expensive. They all do the job, but I think Meteoblue does it best with the least amount of hassle.

In last month's report I mentioned a graphic called Earth by the Nullschool. While it is an interesting graphic program it is not a serious program for weather forecasting. It is fun to look at and play with but not a serious weather forecasting app.

A small weather station at your place combined with some internet resources like those discussed above will keep you well informed about the current and near future weather. You don't need a small weather station to get weather forecasts for your area. In fact they won't even help with this. They only tell you what is currently happening at your location.  Amazingly with your computer or smartphone you can access the best possible forecasts in the world via the internet from the existing sophisticated super computer models.

At 15:00 hours, we returned from  Bajo Boquete after shopping and it was not raining here at Palmira Arriba.  In Boquete there was a mist (Bajareque) coming from the north and lightly falling. We didn't need umbrellas but things were getting wet. About 16:00 hours it started to rain lightly here in Palmira Arriba. I am finishing this report at 17:00 hours and it is lightly raining. It has rained 0.04 inches in the hour. The winds are coming from the NEE at 11mph.  I think the forecast was basically on target.

 

December is often a transition month moving into the beginnings of the dry season. Rains taper off. Winds usually kick up and they can get quite strong toward the end of the month. Be prepared for the NE Trade Winds. Hang on to those umbrellas!

It won't be long until we start complaining about the winds and forgetting the rain.

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com