November 3, 2024

No.187

October 2024
(Back Issues Here)

We had 22.81 inches of rain at the Palmira Arriba Station during the month of October 2024.

Rainfall for October 2024
Area	Contributors	October 2024	Total 2024
El Salto Arriba	Beth Corwin	18.54	99.63
El Santuario	Robert Boyd	n/a	n/a
Bajo Lino	Rodrigo Marciacq	19.85	n/a
Los Cabazon	Don Hughes	19.10	112.11
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	28.38	171.41
Jaramillo Arriba	Mark Heyer	22.12	125.28
Jaramillo Abajo	John McGann	25.78	174.29
Palo Alto	Nancy Pettersen	25.84	117.69
Valle Escondido	Gisela Remsen	19.42	113.62
Brisas  Boquetenas	Dennis Decorte	50.75	n/a
Brisas Boquetenas	Richard Sturz	49.44	n/a
El Encanto (Volcancito)	Brian Baldwin	18.31	111.13
Cerro Verde (Volcancito)	Charlotte Lintz	19.03	87.63
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	22.21	136.04
Caldera	Chris McCall	25.52	175.10
Lucero	Mike Joy	44.56	227.81
Palmira Abajo	Andrea Boraine	36.40	n/a
Palmira Abajo	Dave Nichols	25.75	165.08
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	22.81	140.75
El Banco (Potrerillos Arriba)	Laura Daniels	?	n/a
N/A = Not Available Red = Highest rainfalls Green = Lowest rainfall

The highest reported rainfalls are noted with the red boxes. The lowest reported rainfalls are noted with the green boxes.  The highest was 50.75 inches at Brisas Boquetenas reported by Dennis Decorte. The lowest reported was 18.31 inches by Brian Baldwin at El Encanto. Look the table over to see the variation over the District of Boquete.

Checking the past data from the Palmira Arriba Station over a span of 18 years, the average rainfall for the months of October is 26.75 inches.  The range is 30.65 with a low of 15.27 to a high of 45.92 inches of rain. This month's 22.81 inches is 3.94 inches below the annual mean of 26.75 inches. This is -0.5 standard deviations below the mean but is within the normal statistical range. We had less than normal rain but it was not significantly out of the normal range.

Keep in mind that I am only discussing the rainfall here at our Palmira Arriba Station.  I can't evaluate all of the districts in Boquete because I didn't and don't have weather stations in all of these areas for 20 years of data collection to make comparisons. Where you live in Boquete might be different but unless you have hard data you can only speculate about the present compared to the past.

 Here is a summary of the statistics for the months of October collected over a span of 18 years.  

Palmira Arriba Station October Rainfalls over 18 Years

You can Check it out for yourself here.

Last month the average winds at the Palmira Station were 0.92 mph with maximum winds of 19.30 mph. During the rainy season we usually have lower winds than during the dry season. This month we had the lowest average winds for the year. 

The average temperature in October was 70.49 degrees Fahrenheit.  The lowest temperature was 61.9 degrees Fahrenheit and the highest was 86.4F.

You can check out all of our (Palmira Station) previous monthly data for Octobers at this link.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "ENSO-neutral conditions are present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025."

Here is a link to a source to better understand El Niño in case you need some help interpreting what this all means. Give this a read and you will learn a lot about this important weather phenomenon that affects global weather. It has more effect upon the Northern Latitudes than it has upon us here in the tropics.   

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is predicting with a high probability of above normal rainfall for our area during the months of November-December 2024 and January 2025 (blue).

IMHPA (Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá) documents section predicts that November rainfall for Chiriqui will be above normal levels.  You can read all of their report and check out the details in the "documents" section at this link. Here is what they state (translated from Spanish to English) regarding the rainfall predicted for November:"

"The following map shows the forecast of accumulated rainfall expected for the month of November 2024. The color scale represents the rainfall values ​​expected for the forecast period. It is expected that rainfall values ​​will have an above-normal behavior for Chiriquí, Comarca Ngäbe Buglé, Central Veraguas, Coclé, Los Santos, Panama and Southern Darién. However, normal behavior with a downward trend is expected in the North of Bocas del Toro, Colón and Comarca Guna Yala. For the rest of the country, a behavior typical of the season is expected."

Yesterday, November 2, we had some heavy rains in parts of the District.  Here at the Palmira Station we recorded 6.01 inches of rain that started in the afternoon. Some parts had less. Dennis Decorte in Brisas told me they only had a little over an inch! He is the one who reported the highest rainfall in October!   Other parts of Boquete had even more than we had in Palmira.  Creeks and rivers were gorged and running heavier than normal. There was some flooding of parts of roads. Why so much rain in early November?

Although this much rain or even more rain occasionally falls in a short span of time (several hours) it is not frequent. Over the 20 years that I have observed weather here in Boquete it has probably happened about 10+ times. 

When it rains this much, it is a lot of water that has to go somewhere so it usually takes the easiest route downhill normally by way of creeks and rivers until they are overwhelmed. This can lead to flooding especially if the ground is already saturated from previous rains. Water may run over bridges and roads or pool in low areas across roads. 

Since we have lived here full-time permanently (2005-present) there have been two very serious floods in Boquete Bajo that took out major bridges. One in 2008 and the other in 2010. Bajo Boquete has a long history of significant floods.  After the big flood in 2010 lots of work was done on the banks of the Caldera River which runs through Boquete to try and prevent such serious floods in the future. So far this seems to have been successful but, if enough rain should fall at high and low elevations, the water has to go somewhere and could cause flooding. This would further test the efforts taken to try and prevent major Boquete Bajo floods. 

So why do we get serious rains at times? And why did we get a lot of rain yesterday?  It is related to what is going on in the Caribbean and the Pacific and the flow of air from the south, northeast and east.  This brought lots of rain into our area from the north and east which hit the northern and eastern parts of Boquete. It didn't affect those south of Bajo Boquete as much as the system was mainly coming in over the mountains from the Caribbean.

When Caribbean and Pacific systems develop around the south and north of Panama we can get bands/rivers of rain that significantly affect us. While we don't typically experience direct hits from hurricanes, we can get serious rains from them. 

Currently, the ITCZ is over our region which is associated with a elongated low pressure zone. The weather systems north and south are often associated with higher pressures and this tends to make the moist air from them move into our area bringing precipitation and wind. This can result in lots of precipitation.

Watch this video from Hurricane Info on November 3, 2024 to better understand what is going on around us right now in the Caribbean that is probably contributing to our very wet rainy days.

Also read about the Central American gyre to get some idea of the complicated weather dynamics that may be affecting our current weather and the high precipitation.

When we get this type of weather, I usually just try to understand it by looking at satellite images to see where the moisture is and the flow/movement of the systems. This doesn't change the weather, but it helps me better understand and monitor it. I have links to a variety of tools to monitor all of this at the website if you are interested in the details.

You can check for weather warnings at IMHPA Advisories (Instituto de Meteorología e Hidrología de Panamá) and SINAPROC alerts.

Keep in mind that forecasts in our area are limited and will usually only give you some general idea of the big picture but won't necessarily be specific to your location. Prediction is often tricky and limited.

The Earth graphics (links to it have been posted on the front page at Boqueteweather.com Quick page for many years) are interesting and helpful to get a picture of the dynamics of world weather systems. They can help understand the "flow of things" but the data for them is collected every three hours and what you see isn't real time. They are limited in predicting our weather. It takes some study to learn how to use the graphics. It takes some study to understand and use this amazing graph. Have fun with the graphics and learn about world weather systems but don't be fooled into thinking they are rock solid prognosticators that reveal what is going on in your specific area.

October didn't surprise or disappoint. With it come lots of rain which is to be expected during the rainy season.  As I have mentioned a number of times, October is often our rainiest month during the rainy season.

November is usually a mixed bag of rain with less to no rain. In general the rains tapper off during November and we end up having less rain than we have in October.  November is starting out with a bang, but only time will tell how it all turns out.

So keep the umbrellas handy and in good shape. Keep your chins up and attitudes high. Try to get your outside stuff done in the mornings, then kick back in the afternoons under a good roof! Also remember that if you wait a while, the weather will change.

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com