January 2, 2019

No.117

December 2018
(Back Issues Here)

December 2018 rains dropped 0.29 inches at the Palmira Station.  The reports from around the District of Boquete for December 2018 are in the following table:

Rainfall for December 2018
Area	Contributors	December	Total 2018
El Santuario	Terry Zach	1.24	82.03
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	1.64	118.90
Jaramillo Abajo	Don Berkowitz	2.01	n/a
Jaramillo Abajo	Bobi McGann	1.69	127.00
El Salto Arriba	Rodrigo Marciacq	1.01	80.86
Brisas  Boquetenas	Austin Perry	3.30	162.75
Brisas Boquetenas	Richard Sturtz	3.00	88.53
Los Molinos	Sela Burkholder	1.38	162.33
Los Molinos	Fred Donelson	0.59	n/a
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	0.18	n/a
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso)	Michael Mullin	6.82	159.4
Cerro Verde	Charlotte Lintz	0.66	n/a
Boquete Country Club	Paul Arrandale	0.68	n/a
Palmira Abajo	Betty Gray	1.00	115.77
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	0.29	109.40
n/a = not currently available but will be posted when available

Thanks again to all the volunteer rainfall data collectors.  We really appreciate it and it is helping us to better understand micro rain climates in the Boquete District.

The monthly rainfall at our Palmira Arriba station was 0.29 inches.  Only a bit more than 1/4 of an inch.  Lots of sunshine and wind, but no rain.  How does this compare with December totals for past years? 

This is a low amount of rain for our 11 years of recorded December rainfalls.  In fact, it is the lowest we have ever recorded.  The average December rainfall has been 3.12 inches with a range of 0.29 to 7.01 inches. You can look at the monthly details over the last 11 years at this link. 

The highest rainfall for the Boquete area in December was 3.30 inches in Brisas Boquetenas recorded by Austin Perry.

The total rainfall for the year 2018 was 109.4 inches at the Palmira Arriba station.  This is -0.67 standard deviations below the mean annual rainfall of 140.87 inches a year for 11 years.  For the 11 years measured, the mean has been 140.87 with a standard deviation of 47.78 inches.  The range has been 222.86 inches (2008) to 89.03 inches (2014).  2018 has been a low rainfall year but not the lowest in the years observed.

Note that this year, Brisas Boquetenas and Los Molinos recorded the highest rainfall with over 162 inches.  Lucero had 159.4 inches.  The lowest rainfall was in El Salto Arriba with 80.86 inches.

The winds have arrived.  In December our average wind was 8.71 mph with a maximum wind of 32.6 mph.  You will note that this was the windiest month we had in 2018.  Check the data here.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is now saying that "El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance)."

To learn more about El Niño, check out this link to a web site that will help you to better understand the phenomenon and its effects on our climate and weather.

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the following precipitation predictions for January-February-March of 2019. Note a probability prediction of below normal precipitation for most of Panama (yellow to brown).

ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting that Chiriqui will have normal levels of precipitation in December of 2018 through February of 2019. You can read their report and check out the details in the "documents" section at this link.

 It seems like the dry season suddenly sprang upon us.  Lots of sunshine, no rain, very little bajareque and plenty of NE Trade winds.

People often ask this time of the year, "Why is it so windy and when will it stop?"  The first part of the question is easiest to explain.  It is windy here because high pressure air masses have developed in the north from the polar air and we are a low pressure area.  The high pressure wants to go where the pressure is low.  So the air moves in our direction from the north.  Take a look at today's Unified Surface Analysis Chart and you can see all the high pressure north of us and the ITCZ (candy stripe red line) near us with low pressure.  All this high pressure moving toward our low pressure area creates the NE Trade Winds.   

When will this change and the winds die down?  As the ITCZ gradually moves north and the polar air masses up north diminish things will calm down.  Usually this starts to happen in March and April as we transition into the next rainy season.  Such is life in Paradise.

I want to share a couple of news items with you: 

Near the end of December, we celebrated the 50th year anniversary f the Apollo 8 mission to the moon.  This was a very big event in the history of mankind.  Underlying it was the entire history of organized human activity, scientific thought and engineering.  It was the first time that humans had ever left the orbit of the earth and orbited the moon.  It was the first time humans had ever seen our planet in space.  On December 24, 1968 of this mission, William Anders took the most memorable photo ever taken by a human being.  It became known as the Earthrise photo.  Please take the time to read about this mission and think about the photo.  Here is a brief summary. Here is a link to the photo.  Later missions took more spectacular photos of the earth from space, but this image is probably the most astounding memorable moment.  It is worth careful meditation.

Last month several significant reports were published in the news about the status of climate change.  For an overview read this article.  For a more in-depth study of this matter, read the most recent IPCC special report on Global Warming.  I think this should get our undivided attention and action.

I am often asked, "What do you believe about Climate Change and Global Warming?"  I want to say, "It doesn't matter what I believe.  What matters are the facts about it."  I think we can get the closest to the facts not by beliefs, but by good science and the resulting facts.  I tend to pay the most attention to the qualified dedicated credible scientists studying the problem.  They are collectively speaking clearly and I think we should listen.  I pay little to no attention to unqualified grandiose sharpshooters taking pop-shots at things they know little or nothing about.  Unfortunately, many don't even understand or appreciate quality science.  What a pity.

We may get some occasional bajareque (drizzle) this month and hopefully some beautiful rainbows, but significant rain is highly improbable.  Keep the umbrellas stored unless you need some UV protection and have the indestructible vented windproof type.

Best of the New Year.

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com