November  3, 2021

No.151

October 2021
(Back Issues Here)

October 2021 did not disappoint.  We had 25.87 inches of rain at the Palmira Arriba Station.  The reports from around the District of Boquete for October indicate lots of rainfall throughout the district. 

Rainfall for October 2021
Area	Contributors	October 2021	Total 2021
El Salto Arriba	Beth Corwin	23.69	n/a
El Santuario	Robert Boyd	20.75	97.54
El Santuario	Rodrigo Marciacq	20.58	89.16
Barriade Las Flores	Bill Brick	21.50	93.05
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	39.56	166.02
Jaramillo Arriba	Mark Heyer	29.19	128.68
Jaramillo Central	Dave Nichols	36.18	146.23
Jaramillo Abajo	Don Berkowitz	45.18	127.60
Jaramillo Abajo	Bobi McGann	44.74	163.56
Palo Alto	Nancy Pettersen	17.92	126.81
Valle Escondido	Doug Remsen	22.66	82.79
Brisas  Boquetenas	Austin Perry	40.20	n/a
Brisas Boquetenas	Dennis DeCorte	31.95	n/a
Brisas Boquetenas	Richard Sturtz	n/a	n/a
Los Molinos	Sela Burkholder	32.95	167.41
El Encanto (Volcancito)	Brian Baldwin	20.55	n/a
Cerro Verde (Volcancito)	Charlotte Lintz	18.19	n/a
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	27.14	130.85
Caldera	Chris Mccall	37.94	142.66
Lucero	Michael Mullin	52.06	237.86
Boquete Country Club	Paul Arrandale	37.65	142.38
Palmira Abajo	Betty Gray	27.05	121.53
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	25.87	104.54
El Banco	Laura Daniels	39.65	n/a

As I have repeatedly stated, October is often the rainiest month of our rainy season.  The highest rainfall for October 2021 in the District of Boquete was reported by Michael Mullin at Lucero with 52.06 inches. This is a lot of rain!  That is 4.34 feet of rain.  Don Berkowitz reported 45.18 inches in Jaramillo Abajo. Bobi McGann reported 44.74 inches at Jaramillo Abajo.  Several persons reported over 30 inches of rainfall at various locations. Steve Sarner at Jaramillo Arriba reported 39.56 inches said they had the most rain they have ever recorded on Oct 18 with 7.69 inches.

The lowest rainfall for the month was reported by Nancy Peterson at Palo Alto with 17.92 inches.  A low rainfall was reported by Charlotte Lintz at Cerro Verde (upper Volcancito) with 18.19 inches.  Regardless this is still about 1.5 feet of rain!

For us here at Palmira Arriba our 25.87 inches (over 2 feet) was a lot of rain but not the most we have seen during Octobers in 15 years. During October of 2011 we had 45.92 inches of rain.

The Palmira Arriba Station this year recorded 25.87 inches in October. This chart shows the statistics for Octobers from 2007 to 2021.  The mean is 27.096 inches with a standard deviation of 8.53 inches.  You can see that our 25.87 inches is near the mean. 

You can look for yourself at a graph of the Palmira Arriba rain data for all the months over the course of the 15 years we have published it.  You can also look at the tables in the Climate Section to see what rains we have had in various months over the course of the last 15 years as well as other weather variables.

Why do we get so much rain in October?  The answer is complex, but it is partly related to the fact that the ITCZ moves more directly over our area creating rising air masses that form cumulonimbus clouds that dump lots of rain on us.  Also the very low pressures allow high pressure air masses/systems from the north, south, Pacific and Atlantic to move into our area and dump lots of precipitation. You have probably noticed that up north over the past several weeks they have experienced some extreme weather to include west and east coast rains with flooding. All of this has helped push moist air southward to our lower pressure areas and created lots of rain.

Observing all of this, I recently learned a new weather term. When the west coast was blasted with heavy rain, they described the weather phenomena as - Atmospheric Rivers. Also read more about it here. We don't tend to get atmospheric rivers from cyclones (Pacific hurricanes) but we do get heavy rain at times from the spiral rain bands of Pacific and Atlantic hurricanes passing east and north of us.

When we get lots of rain either in the mountains or down lower in the Boquete areas we can get  flooding.  Creeks and rivers become engorged and the water and has to go somewhere. In 2008 and 2010 the Caldera River in Bajo Boquete seriously flooded and there was a lot of resulting damage.  The bridge near the Panamonte Hotel was washed out.  In the following years a lot of work was done to try and shore up the Caldera and help prevent future flooding.  The new bridge was eventually constructed.  We haven't had flood of the Caldera since then, but it is probably only a matter of time before nature presents a flooding challenge.  Hopefully all the work done shoring up the Caldera through town will hold. 

Recent rains have created some smaller floods.  In particular a culvert for a creek on the lower portion of the Jaramillo road plugged up during some heavy rains in late October and caused some localized flooding. The city is replacing the culvert with a larger one which should help but may not solve the problem if we get very heavy rains. 

All that water from the sky has to go somewhere and it usually gorges creeks and rivers and flows downhill until they can't hold anymore and then overflows into flooding.  It pays to not live in a flood plain. The rain also lubricates soils and some slopes can slip and landslides occur.  It pays to not live on steep slopes with vulnerable soils.  

We moved to Boquete permanently in October of 2005.  We started our house construction in July of 2005.  When we arrived in October to live here permanently the house construction by our excellent contractor team managed by Antonio Bacil was well underway.  It was October and it was raining a lot.  The crew worked as much as possible early in the day and then would get rained out later in the day.  Here is what the house and weather looked like late in October of 2005.

The weather was often grey and rainy.  We were living in a small building on the property.  We began to wonder if we had made a mistake moving to this area for our retirement.  We got through October and November and the rains gradually subsided and the weather started to improve into the dry season.  The construction continued.  Eventually, the house evolved into a nice place to live. The sun was shining.  We learned to go with the seasons and even learned to enjoy them. At times we have escaped during the real rainy months, but often stay and experience it all.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "La Niña conditions have developed. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña conditions. La Niña is expected to continue with an 87% chance in December 2021- February 2022."

Here is a link to a source for understanding El Niño.  If you need some help with this, give this a read and you will learn a lot about this important weather phenomenon.

I recently came across an excellent understandable presentation about El Niño and the ENSO by Mel Strong in his Introduction to Weather and Climate Short Course available at YouTube. I highly recommend this presentation and the entire course. If you listen to just the one lecture on El Niño, you will more clearly understand the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) system and how it generally affects world weather. He is an exceptional teacher and I find all his lectures in the course to be very informative and uniquely understandable.

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is predicting that Panama will have a 50%+ probability of above normal levels of precipitation for the months of November-December-January 2022 (green areas).

ETESA's hydrology and meteorology section is predicting that Chiriqui will have above average levels of precipitation during November of 2021. You can read their report and check out the details for Chiriqui in the "documents" section at this link. 

I mentioned this last month, but want to emphasize it again.  In August the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Group I issued the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change. This is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.  If you want to know the current science and facts about climate change, read this report. My opinion is that this is the best information we have as layman regarding the facts and science of climate change as well as the guidelines for governmental policies to hopefully deal with this challenge. 

COVID INFORMATION

MONITORING CORONAVIRUS STATUS LINKS 

At the moment the worldometer reports 248,525,887 cases of COVID worldwide with 5,032,673 deaths and 225,182,060 recovered cases.  The USA has 46,999,771 total cases with 768,847 total deaths and 37,009,990 recovered cases. Imagine 5,032,673 dead human beings in the world (most probably an underestimation) and 768,847 human beings in the United States alone.  That is a lot of dead people.  Despite these hard facts, I still come across people who think this is no big deal and they think it is some sort of infringement of their personal freedom to cooperate, fall-in-line and get vaccinated.  I think such thinking sheer folly and such a stance is the height of foolish narcissism and rebellion.

Over the last 1.5 years a few (4 persons) have asked why I report COVID information and they were apparently offended.  What does it have to do with the weather?  I think it is a fair question.  The short answer is "Not much, but like weather it effects everyone!"  I mainly report about it because it is a dangerous "airborne infection" and it is a serious community matter that we all need to be aware of and do our part to prevent it. I am mostly a concerned citizen who wants the best possible outcome for all of us.  I see it as a serious straight forward civil matter and not a political one.  I want to encourage all of us to take it seriously and be responsible citizens.  This is one small thing we can all do to contribute to a better community.  I am not a medical doctor, but I don't need to be a medical doctor to be an educated caring person who wants the best possible health and protection for all of the community. I do it because I am sensitive to the matter and care. 

I was asked last month to give a talk at the Thursday Library BCP Chats regarding my thoughts on observing Boquete Weather over the last 20 years.  At the end, I asked if there was something I hadn't covered that they wanted me to talk about.  One person said, "How about COVID?"  I responded by showing one last slides in three steps which I will now share with you in one step:

My parents were Indiana farmers.  My father had a high school education and my mother finished the 8th grade.  They were middle class persons who worked hard. They were dedicated Christians.  They were not very political but mainly voted Republican.  They had 3 children, 2 boys and a girl.  I am number 2 in birth order with an older brother and younger sister.  As I have previously mentioned, my Mother's mother, my grandmother, died in the 1918 flu epidemic.  My mother made sure that we received good medical care when needed.  Due to my mother's diligence and the availability of vaccines, we got every vaccination that was available.  We didn't see it as an imposition of our rights.  We were grateful to the medical community for looking out for us. I think my mother was right!

Back to weather:  October is usually our heaviest rain month and then November and December are transition months tapering into the dry season with lots of NE winds.  However, November can be quite rainy. We will need our umbrellas for some time but hopefully not as often as we did in October.

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com