| October 3, 2015 | No. 82 |
September & October 2015
The Palmira Station had a total of 12.93 inches of rain in September and a total of 24.34 inches in October. Our total for the year 2015 at the end of October is 72.89 inches. The total for October was an improvement over the previous months of the rainy season this year but it was lower than average for what we normally get in October (Average of 30.40 inches with a range of 19.55 to 45.92 inches). The total of rain for the year is also less than the average in the previous 9 years that we have collected data at the Palmira Station (see graph below of yearly average October rains). We still have November and December to complete the year, but normally these 2 months deliver a lot less rain as we transition into the dry season.
Here are the totals for September and October 2015 for various District of Boquete areas. I will post missing data it as it arrives. Note that the highest rainfall, 36.65 inches, occurred at Jaramillo Abajo as recorded by Sela Burkholder.
Rainfall for September & October 2015 |
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Area |
Contributors |
September |
October |
Total 2015 |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
7.02 |
18.5 |
68.72 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
16.5 |
36.65 |
96.38 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
19.72 |
N/A |
N/A |
Brisas Boquetenas |
Austin Perry |
17.50 |
32.55 |
96.60 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
21.52 |
34.99 |
137.92 |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
6.3 |
15.87 |
59.16 |
Volcancito Arriba |
Pat & Susan Farrell |
7.36 |
17.05 |
52.1 |
Valle Escondido |
Mark Huehnergard |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Palmira Abajo |
Betty Gray |
18.52 |
22.09 |
N/A |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
12.93 |
24.34 |
72.89 |
n/a = not currently available |
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Palmira Arriba Station 2007-2015
If you look through the data from 2007 to the present, you can easily see that October 2015 is a low rain month compared to previous years but not the lowest (2012 & 2010 were lower). 2012 had less than 20 inches. The bottom line is that we are having a lower October rainfall and our total annual rainfall for 2015 is low.
The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016."
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the precipitation predictions for November-December-January of 2016. Note that they are predicting Below Normal precipitation for areas around Panama 45% to 50% probability levels.
ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting a strong probability that our area will have normal precipitation during the month of November 2015, but some areas of Panama will be below normal (ie. Azuero Peninsula). You can read their report for November in the documents section at this link. According to La Prensa ETESA is reporting that the dry season may arrive earlier this year. This makes some sense given that we are in a strong El Niño cycle. Some parts of Panama may experience drought.
Lots of things are happening with the weather up north and around the world, but the big news in late October 2015 was the development of the most powerful cyclone (hurricane) in recorded history, Cyclone Patricia. It developed rapidly in the Pacific and threatened the western coast of Mexico. At it's peak it was a Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds. Fortunately, it hit the coast of Mexico in a less populated area and the coastal mountains dissapated the strong winds. Mexico did a good job evacuating target areas so loss of life was kept down. The system quickly moved into Texas causing record rainfalls and flooding. It was an incredible powerhouse. Here is a photo of the storm taken by astronaut Scott Kelly from the International Space Station. You can read more about Patricia here (scroll down the web page).
I was schedule to give a talk at the Boquete Tuesday Meeting on October 27 but the Mayor of Boquete, Emigdio Walker Vasquez, the Chief of the Boquete Police, Cpt. Juan Arauz and the Panama Minister of Security, Rodolfo Aguilera asked for time to talk with the group. I was ready to talk about Boquete Weather: Things are Changing, but when asked at the last minute, I stepped aside for the Officials.
They had important things to say to the Expats about crime and our protection. One thing I know about my fellow human beings is that they are more attentive to talks about crime and it's prevention than they are of talks about weather/climate and it's prevention! You can see videos of the Minister's talk at these links (Part I, Part II, Part III). You can see the Minister's presentation slides here.
I am rescheduled to give my talk on January 19, 2016. It will be my third Tuesday Meeting talk in 9 years. I will show you what is happening to our weather based upon the data collected over 9 years and the apparent trends. I will also share with you updates on what we have learned about retiring to a place like Boquete in 10 years. Hope to see you there.
In the mean time, be prepared for a bit of rain, but especially be prepared to use the umbrella for some shade.
Lloyd Cripe