| August 05, 2018 | No.112 |
July 2018
(Back Issues Here)
July 2018 gave us 6.59 inches of rain at the Palmira Station. The reports from around the District of Boquete for July 2018 are in the following table:
Rainfall for July 2018 |
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Area |
Contributors |
July |
Total 2018 |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
9.73 |
51.12 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
7.94 |
66.42 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Don Berkowitz |
7.38 |
n/a |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Bobi McGann |
7.39 |
66.06 |
El Salto Arriba |
Rodrigo Marciacq |
7.87 |
47.67 |
| Cerro Verde (Volcancito) | Charlotte Lintz | 4.46 | n/a |
Brisas Boquetenas |
Austin Perry |
12.05 |
n/a |
| Brisas Boquetenas | Richard Sturtz | n/a | n/a |
Los Molinos |
Sela Burkholder |
13.44 |
83.15 |
| Los Molinos | Fred Donelson | 11.72 | n/a |
Santa Lucia |
Paula Litt |
7.50 |
n/a |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
11.02 |
77.50 |
| Boquete Country Club | Paul Arrandale | 6.63 | n/a |
Palmira Abajo |
Betty Gray |
7.10 |
61.74 |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
6.59 |
61.47 |
n/a = not currently available but will be posted when available |
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Thanks again to all the volunteer rain fall data collectors. We really appreciate it and it is helping us to better understand micro rain climates in the Boquete District.
It seemed to most of us to be a lower than normal rainfall for July. Comparing it to previous years for the month of July (2007 thru 2018) the numbers indicate a low normal July rainfall but still within normal limits.
Over the course of 11 years of data collection, here at the Palmira Station, the average rain for July has been 12.58 inches with a range of 2.79 to 31.02 inches with a standard deviation of 8.04. The rain for July 2018 is a bit less than a standard deviation (0.75) below the mean. It is a lower month of July rainfall but not extremely low. You can check out our Palmira Station rain records for yourself for the last 11 years at this link and see what you think.
The latest ENSO Cycle Report is now saying that "ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance for El Niño increasing to about 65% during fall, and to about 70% during winter 2018-19." So we are not yet into an El Niño cycle.
If you want to learn more about El Niño, this is a link to a good web site to understand the phenomenon and its effects on our climate and weather.
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the following precipitation predictions for August-September-October of 2018. Note a 40-50% probability prediction of below normal precipitation for our area (yellow).
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ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting that most parts of Chiriqui will generally have below normal levels of precipitation for the month of August 2018. You can read their report and check out the details for August 2018 in the "documents" section at this link.
The Bulletin of the American Meteorology Society has just published The State of the Climate in 2017. You can download it here. The Executive Summary of the report can be downloaded here.
This is probably the most authoritative report we can read to best understand the facts of Climate. It is the result of a NOAA coordination of 500+ scientists from 65 countries doing an annual checkup of the climate. You can read more about this study at this link.
I am frequently asked "What do you believe about Climate Change?" It doesn't really matter what I "believe" about it. What really matters are the facts. That is what we need to look for. I think we get closest to the facts through scientific study by credible groups of dedicated scientists, not through beliefs. I pay attention to the reports of such scientists.
We don't know what August will bring, but based upon the observed past, we will probably need those umbrellas more than last month. As I write this 5 days into August we already have 4.5 inches for the month. Perhaps you should spend more time under cover reading that report!
Lloyd Cripe