| July 5, 2014 | No. 71 |
June 2014
Here are the totals for June 2014 along with the totals for the entire year in the District of Boquete. We had 8.39 inches at the Palmira Station. Los Molinos reported the highest amount for the District with 21.35 inches. Volcancito Arriba reported the lowest amount at 7.05 inches.
Rainfall for June & Year 2014 |
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Area |
Contributors |
June |
Year |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
9.00 |
21.33 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
13.71 |
37.12 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
13.44 |
33.70 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
21.35 |
55.58* |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
7.92 |
18.73 |
Volcancito Arriba |
Pat & Susan Farrell |
7.05 |
n/a |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
13.87 |
52.25 |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
8.39 |
19.69 |
n/a = not currently available; *=estimated due to equipment problems |
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We have a new station in the district reporting monthly rainfall. This station is located in upper Volcancito. It is owned and operated by Pat & Susan Farrell. We thank them for joining our monthly rainfall report and for another station to check daily weather. You can see their station weather data at this link to Weather Underground or just go to the Stations tab at our website and click on their station listing to access it.
The big question many are asking is whether or not we are having less rain this month and year than we had in previous years? Here is what it looks like based upon the data we have collected at the Palmira Station for 8 years (2007-2014).
You can see on the chart that for June 2014 we had 8.39 inches of rain and 19.69 inches total for the year through June. Over the course of 8 years we have had an average of 17.55 inches of rain in the month of June (blue columns) with a standard deviation of 9.26 inches. The June 2014 rainfall is .99 standard deviations below the mean of the average for the month of June over the 8 years.
The chart reveals that our average yearly rainfall (red columns) up through the month of June over 8 years has been 50.85 inches with a standard deviation of 18.27 inches. At the end of June we are 1.7 standard deviations below the mean for total rainfall for the year. A visual inspection of the chart clearly shows that we are below the average for the year at this point. This is the lowest amount of annual rainfall by the end of June for the 8 years recorded. The data indicates that we are getting less rain. This also fits our subjective view. Is this a trend or just a normal variation?
Unfortunately I don't have access to more data over a longer period to answer the question. There may have been other stretches in the long history of Panama with lower rainfall months and years. There may be dry cycles. Based on the limited data we have, all I can say with confidence is that we have over the last couple of years had less rain than we normally had over the average of the previous 8 years. I have no way of knowing the cause or the long term expectation. This may be a trend or it may simply be a normal variation. It would take a lot more data and other statistical analyses to make any certain judgments.
Check out the latest ENSO Cycle Report to see that a neutral condition continues but the chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year and is now exceeding 70% by summer and 80% by fall and winter.
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the following for July-August-September of 2014. Note there is a 40+% probability prediction of lower precipitation for parts of Central America west of Panama (yellow areas) and northern South America east of Panama.
In general, I am enjoying the year with less rainy season drenching. We had a beautiful 4th of July with lots of sun. I am not complaining. Hopefully we will get enough rain in the upcoming months to keep the coffee growing and the electricity coming. The umbrellas are inactive and it is safe to say that they will neither wear out or rust out the way things are going. However, keep them handy as we don't know what the future months hold.
Lloyd Cripe