| June 2, 2015 | No. 78 |
May 2015
The rainy season started this month but is has been a slow start. The Palmira Station had a total of 6.46 inches with most of the rain toward the end of the month. Our total for 2015 to date is 9.83 inches. This is the lowest for the month of May that we have recorded since 2007. During the 8 year span of recording weather data the May rains have ranged from 6.46 to 40.94 inches. I have usually thought of May as one the rainiest month but this is not the case this year. Despite the lesser rainfall, the plants are perking up. Our lawn has transformed from an ugly dry brown to a vibrant green.
Here are the totals for May 2015 for various District of Boquete areas. Note that the highest rainfall occurred at Lucero with 12.51 inches. The lowest was in Los Naranjos with 5.06.
Rainfall for May 2015 |
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Area |
Contributors |
May |
Total for 2015 |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
5.95 |
16.44 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
11.09 |
N/A |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
7.64 |
17.25 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
13.84 |
N/A |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
5.06 |
N/A |
Volcancito Arriba |
Pat & Susan Farrell |
N/A |
N/A |
Valle Escondido |
Mark Huehnergard |
N/A |
N/A |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
12.51 |
N/A |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
6.46 |
9.83 |
n/a = not currently available |
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Looking ahead, check out the latest ENSO Cycle Report to see that we are now in El Niño conditions and "There is approximately 90% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015."
This brings up again the topic of what is El Niño and how does El Niño affect our area? I am frequently asked these questions.
El Niño or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a change in Pacific Ocean temperatures and currents. You can read a simplified description/explanation at this National Geographic education website. You can work on a deeper understanding at this link. These changes affect the weather in various parts of the world.
How does El Niño affect Central America's weather? It depends where you are in Central American but a general rule is that the weather is usually dryer on the Pacific side and wetter on the Caribbean side of the countries. This is especially true for the Central American countries north of us because the length of their countries is oriented north and south. Panama of course is mainly oriented lengthwise east and west. The following graphic which I have shown you before gives some general ideas about how Latin America weather is affected by El Niño:
Basically in El Niño conditions we here in Panama tend to have dryer weather with possible drought and somewhat higher temperatures. In 1997 and 1998 when El Niño was very strong there was drought. Friends who lived here in Panama during that time tell me that there was significant drought that affected the entire country to include the Canal. Water levels got so low that there was concern about the operation of the Canal. You can read a United Nations report about the 1997-1998 El Niño impacts here. You can also read a general article about the vicious cycle of El Niño and La El Niña at this link.
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society (select South America from the Region menu) is now reporting the precipitation predictions for our area for June, July and August of 2015. Note they are predicting Below Normal precipitation for large areas of Panama (Yellow Boxes) with 40% probability.
ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting that we will have basically normal precipitation with a tendency to lower precipitation during the month of June 2015. You can read their report for June 2015 at this link.
For those who might not know, ETESA is Panama's electrical power organization that has the agency for monitoring Panama's water and weather (Gerencia de Hidrometeorología Climatología). You can visit their website to see what they are saying about Panama's weather and its prediction of the weather. There is a lot of information there, but you have to take time to look for it. It is in Spanish so you can practice your Spanish while visiting. The "English" button doesn't work very well.
While we may have less rain this year it is difficult to impossible to know what will really evolve. There is probably a decent chance of less overall rain for the year, but we will probably get enough moisture to keep our beautiful area going and the coffee growing. I am sure that you will need your umbrellas at times so don't think of putting them away. I leave you with this quote:
Until next month (I hope!)
Lloyd Cripe