| April 05, 2016 | No.86 |
March 2016
The bottom line this month is dry. The Palmira Station had no measurable precipitation. Our total for the year 2016 has not changed - 0.93 inches.
Thanks again to all those who contribute their monthly rain data. Here are the totals for February 2016 from various District of Boquete areas.
Rainfall for March 2016 |
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Area |
Contributors |
March |
Total 2016 |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
0.23 |
4.80 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
0.34 |
0.35 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
0.38 |
4.00 |
Brisas Boquetenas |
Austin Perry |
0.0 |
0.25 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
n/a |
n/a |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
0.14 |
5.21 |
Valle Escondido |
Mark Huehnergard |
0.0 |
1.45 |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
0.01 |
0.19 |
Palmira Abajo |
Betty Gray |
0.11 |
0.47 |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
0.47 |
0.93 |
n/a = not currently available |
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Again, March has been a dry month.
The following graph illustrates the monthly rainfall over the years from 2007 through 2015. This shows which months are associated with less and more rain. Note that March is typically a low rain month with an average of 2.88 inches. March 2016 has certainly been lower than average although 2015 was also very low. We are now into April and having some light precipitation.
The following graph shows average monthly winds. Note that March is typically one of our windiest months but this year was even lower with 6.7 mph.
Typically, April brings a bit more precipitation and is a transition month into the rainy season which is in full force by May. May is often one of our rainiest months. As the ITCZ shifts northward and comes over us, the winds subside and the rains begin.
The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "A transition to ENSO neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50% chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall."
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the precipitation predictions for April-May-June of 2016. Note that they are not making any predictions specific to Panama but areas to the east and south of Panama are forecasted to have above-average precipitation.
ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting a strong probability that the Chiriqui area will have mixed precipitation during the month of April 2016 with some areas below and others above normal. It looks like they are predicting that our area will have normal precipitation. You can read their report and check out the details for March in the documents section at this link.
I want to share with you an incredible weather graphic that Sally Zigmond brought to my attention recently. It is probably the most amazing weather graphic that I have ever seen. I encourage you to check it out and give it some attention as it offers observations that help understand what is happening to world weather and our local area.
It is called Earth - a visualization of global weather conditions. You can read about it here. When you bring up the Earth web page, on the lower left you can click on the earth menu to see the variables that you can select. The setup that I made and use the most is this projection (Patterson projection) with our area in the center and surface winds.
In the About section you can read about the data used for graphic. This is not exactly a real-time graphic but as close to real-time as possible. For starters, you can observe where the ITCZ is by looking at the movement of winds and seeing where the NE and SE trade winds converge. You can left click/drag on the image and move the globe around. If you just click on a spot, you will see the details for that spot on the earch.
This graphic is only possible with current super-computers and all the weather data that we now have via satellites and other probes. Only, the technology that evolved through the work of many scientists and engineers befoe and during our lifetime makes this possible. It is absolutely amazing and worthy of meditation. The creator is Cameron Beccario. Wow! Thanks to Cameron. And again thanks to Sally for putting us onto this. However, beware that this can be addictive.
We will probably get more rain this month. You will notice that when the winds from the NE go quiet (Doldrums), the chance of rain for that day goes up. All the locals know this even if they don't have all the fancy weather gizmos. Time to limber up those umbrellas and shake off the dust. You are going to need it.
Lloyd Cripe