Mar 3, 2023

No.167

February 2023
(Back Issues Here)

We had 0.00 inches of rain at the Palmira Arriba Station in February of 2023. Another dry month in the dry season but not unexpected.  

Rainfall for February 2023
Area	Contributors	February 2023	Total 2023
El Salto Arriba	Beth Corwin	0.13	0.55
El Santuario	Robert Boyd	2.59	6.32
El Santuario	Rodrigo Marciacq	2.48	6.16
Los Cabazon	Don Hughes	0.80	3.07
Jaramillo Arriba	Steve Sarner	1.03	3.29
Jaramillo Arriba	Mark Heyer	N/A	N/A
Jaramillo Central	Dave Nichols	N/A	N/A
Jaramillo Abajo	Don Berkowitz	0.0	N/A
Jaramillo Abajo	John McGann	0.07	0.48
Palo Alto	Nancy Pettersen	5.89	13.50
Valle Escondido	Gisela Remsen	0.02	0.65
Brisas  Boquetenas	Austin Perry	0.0	2.00
Brisas  Boquetenas	Dennis Decorte	0.0	2.75
Brisas Boquetenas	Richard Sturz	1.84	3.68
Los Molinos	Sela Burkholder	0.0	3.82
El Encanto (Volcancito)	Brian Baldwin	0.0	0.90
Cerro Verde (Volcancito)	Charlotte Lintz	0.0	0.66
Santa Lucia	Paula Litt	0.0	0.62
Caldera	Chris Mccall	0.0	1.89
Lucero	Mike Joy	0.0	1.45
Boquete Country Club	Paul Arrandale	0.03	0.58
Palmira Abajo	Andrea Boraine	0.0	1.40
Palmira Arriba	Lloyd Cripe	0.0	0.66
El Banco	Laura Daniels	N/A	N/A
N/A = Not Available

At the Palmira Arriba Station we recorded no rain in February. Not a drop. A dry month. Seemed very dry to us but is this normal for this time of the year? The average for the month of February observed over 17 years of data collecting is 0.88 inches (less than an inch) with a standard deviation of 1.38 inches. During that span of time there have been 3 February months with 0.0 inches of rain. The range has been between 0.00 to 4.96 inches. This month was less than a standard deviation below the mean but essentially within normal limits.

Palmira Arriba Station February Rainfall over 17 Years

In the District of Boquete the rain for February 2023 was generally low with the highest again reported by Nancy Pettersen at their Palo Alto home with 5.89 inches. Note also some moisture in El Santuario.  These are areas that typically receive more of the Bajareque precipitation that blows in over the mountains from the Caribbean.

Take a look at this table to compare the amount of rain per month over the course of 16 years at the Palmira Arriba Station.  You can check each month for yourself and see how the current month's data compares to other years. You can also look at the tables in the Climate Section to see what rains we had in various months over the course of the last 16 years as well as other weather variables.

Next month I will calculate the Dry Season Index to see if we experienced a drier dry season than usual.

The Wind

Did you notice the wind in February?  We had plenty of it.  Most of the days in February were windy.  At the Palmira Arriba Station the winds for the month averaged 11.15 mph.  The maximum wind recorded during the month was 32.3 mph.

I overheard and received several comments about the wind this month. Some thought the winds were stronger than normal and that it was unusually windy. Interestingly, one person told me that the winds are less now than they used to be.  He was born and raised here, mainly in Alto Boquete.  His father built one of the first buildings in Alto Boquete.  He told me that the winds were very strong years ago.  For a long time no one lived in Alto Boquete because of rocky poor soil and strong winds.  His father reinforced ther roof structure to prevent wind damage.  He said that, "The wind would rip off entire roofs."  He thinks that we now have less severe winds than in the past. So who is right?  More or less wind?

In 2007 I wrote and posted an article at the website on Understanding Boquete Weather and Climate.  In that article, there was a section on the wind where I explained the basic cause of our winds.  In the article, I quoted a naturalist, Henry Pittier who in 1911 wrote about his journey from David to Boquete on horse back in the month of March.  He talked about the winds.  It sounds like the winds were especially strong.  I suggest reading about his experience. Winds are a Boquete reality that realtors and promoters of living in Boquete don't like to talk about.  How often have you seen a real estate ad that talks about the excessive rains and winds of Boquete?  When we moved permanently to Boquete in 2005, Hershel Stolebarger (who developed and led the Tuesday morning meetings) said to us when we were visiting them on a very windy day, "The best kept dirty little Boquete secret is the winds!" I think he was right.

So winds are nothing new in Boquete, but were they unusually strong this February?  The general rumor was that it was unusually windy but what data do we have to make such a judgment?

My observation over 20 years in this area is that we humans are not very good weather data collectors or comparers.  We aren't intrinsically very good weather stations.  We often have strong subjective opinions about the weather and are prone to think the weather is better or worse based on limited data.  We also complain a lot about the weather especially when it rains a lot and the wind blows strong.  We can't really determine if a day or a month is either more or less weatherwise than it was a year ago.  We are often stressed by lots of rain or ongoing winds and tend to easily think it is more or less than it was in the past without any objective way to make the judgment.  Our brains are not all that good as precise data collectors and comparers.  That's why we need and benefit from computers and we invented them because they good at doing this and aiding our limited brains.  We need help with storing the data and making comparisons. Do you remember what the weather was on March 3, 2022 - a year ago?

So was it windier than usual in February 2023 or not?  Here is what 17 years of data collection at the Palmira Arriba Station reveals regarding the wind:

The average wind speed in the Month of February 2023 was 11.15 mph. Here are the statistics on February winds from 2006 thru 2023:

Palmira Arriba Station February Average Winds mph 2006-2023

The average winds in February across 16 years has been 9.38 mph with a standard deviation of 1.68 mph and a range of 6.79 to 12.57 mph.  Last months 11.15 mph is 1.05 mph standard deviations above the mean.  Essentially about 1 standard deviation above the mean.  Note that we have had 3 February months in the past years that are higher than last month's wind. Below is a graph of the average winds in February:

Another consideration in determining as to whether or not we had a windier February this last month compared to previous years is to look at the maximum wind speeds measured during the month: 

Palmira Arriba Station February Maximum Winds mph 2006-2023

Note that our maximum wind speed last month was 32.3 mph.  Over the years I have measured the maximum wind speeds during the month of February the average maximum has been 33.72 mph with a standard deviation of 3.16 mph and a range of 27.3 to 42.0 mph.  Last month's February maximum wind speed is slightly lower than normal.  The graph below presents the yearly February maximum winds:

Based on these data comparisons, it seems that while we had a windy February here in Palmira Arriba it was basically a typical windyFebruary. I should caution that this analysis applies to our locale in Palmira Arriba and it may not be the same in other areas around the District of Boquete. Unfortunately, I don't have the data from other areas to make the judgment.  I do however think that in general February was a typical windy month.  There are considerable differences in the winds of Boquete depending where you live.  For example, every time I filled up with fuel at the Terpel station in Alto Boquete I felt like Henry Pittier coming up the road from David on his horse and thought my horse was going to be blow away!  My hat did blow away once so I quickly learned to leave it in the pickup while filling up!  That is a real windy spot in Boquete.  I'm sure you have noticed.

I mentioned last month some very useful resources for monitoring the winds locally and around the world. Here is the information again:

"If you haven't yet found and checked out the Windy website to monitor the winds of the world, you should take a look and add a bookmark to your browser. Another website that I have previously mentioned is the Nullschool Earth page.  Amazing graphics of the earth's winds that can be set to various levels. While it isn't exactly real time data, it is as close as you can get.  Both of these sites require a bit of study and effort to set them up and use them, but well worth it. Here are useful links to tutorials for learning the Earth Nullschool and Windy websites.

The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "La Niña is present. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer."

Here is a link to a source for a better understanding of El Niño.  If you need some help with this, give this a read and you will learn a lot about this important weather phenomenon. It has more effect upon the Northern Latitudes than it has upon us.

The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is predicting that Panama will have a 40% probability of below normal precipitation during the months of March-April-May of 2023 (Yellow).

ETESA's hydrology and meteorology section is predicting that Chiriqui will continue to have very little precipitation as we are in the annual dry season. Rains will increase in May when we move into the rainy season.  You can read their report and check out the details in the "documents" section at this link.

Expect more dry sunny windy days in March but be prepared with your umbrellas for a bit of rain. Hope that the water supplies around Boquete last (Another dirty little secret)! Keep looking westward at sunset for a peek of Jupiter and Venus dancing together.

Lloyd Cripe

lcripe@boqueteweather.com