| January 02, 2016 | No.84 |
December 2015
Happy New Year 2016. Let's take a look at the weather for December of 2015 and for the year.
The Palmira Station had a total of 2.21 inches of rain in December of 2015. Our total for the year 2015 is 99.21 inches.
Thanks again to all those who contribute their monthly rain data. Here are the totals for December 2015 and the year 2015 for various District of Boquete areas.
Rainfall for December 2015 and the Year 2015 |
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Area |
Contributors |
December |
Total 2015 |
El Santuario |
Terry Zach |
1.98 |
101.50 |
Jaramillo Abajo |
Sela Burkholder |
1.57 |
127.27 |
Jaramillo Arriba |
Steve Sarner |
3.45 |
141.48 |
Brisas Boquetenas |
Austin Perry |
1.60 |
132.70 |
Los Molinos |
Fred Donelson |
xx |
181.37 |
Los Naranjos |
Craig Bennett |
3.14 |
78.60 |
Volcancito Arriba |
Pat & Susan Farrell |
1.72 |
66.62 |
Valle Escondido |
Mark Huehnergard |
1.86 |
Not Available |
Lucero (Cielo Paraiso) |
Michael Mullin |
1.91 |
157.77 |
Palmira Abajo |
Betty Gray |
1.71 |
Not Available |
Palmira Arriba |
Lloyd Cripe |
2.21 |
99.21 |
n/a = not currently available |
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The questions I am asking myself is whether our total rainfall for the year is below normal levels and is the trend toward less rain? I started collecting weather data here at the Palmira Station in 2007. I now have 9 years of data to try and help answer these questions.
The first graph illustrates the monthly rainfall over the years from 2007 through 2015. This shows which months are associated with less and more rain. Note that December, January and February ave the lowest rainfall months. October is often the rainiest month but September and August can also deliver lots of rain. 
The next graph shows the average rain each month from the 2007 through 2015 data. A quick inspection indicates a decrease in annual rainfall over the 9 years.
The following graph shows the results of a trend analysis which clearly indicates a downward trend in rainfall over the 9 years.
The causes of this decreased rainfall trend are not certain, but are probably linked to a variety of factors that include the climate change occuring all over the planet. How far this will go is unkown, but it is of potential serious consequences. It could affect our potable water sources, hydro-electric generation and agriculture.
On December 15, 2015 I gave a talk at the BCT Tuesday Meeting entitiled "Boquete Weather: Things are Changing." I talked in more detail about the weather and climate changes in our area and the importance of all of us becoming aware of Climate Change and doing what we can to improve the long-term outcomes. I hope you were there.
The latest ENSO Cycle Report is saying that "El Niño is expected to remain strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during late spring or early summer 2016."
The IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) (select South America from the Region menu) is reporting the precipitation predictions for January-Februray-March of 2016. Note that they are predicting variable Below Normal precipitation for areas around Panama for these months. This suggests that we will probably have a drier than normal dry season.
ETESA's, hydrology and meteorology section is predicting a strong probability that the Chiriqui area will have below normal precipitation during the month of December 2015. You can read their report and check out the details for December in the documents section at this link.
In case you missed it, in October the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) captured images of the earth from the moon that are spectacular. The images were made public in December 2015. Read more about it here. Think about this incredible image and how it was made. You can learn about the team of people that made this happen at this link. Despite all the ills of the world there are a lot good young people out there doing positive things.
Things are going to get dry. You won't need those umbrellas for a while so put them away and remember to use water mindfully. The grass will survive even if it turns brown without water, but humans don't last long without it.
Lloyd Cripe